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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."