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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.